Here’s How We Can (Mostly) Solve Climate Change By 2050 (Part 1)

Sadly, based on how world leaders are muddling towards COP26, the UN Climate Change Conference later this month in Glasgow, the most likely outcome is a continuation of the long history of insufficient action in the face of ever-stronger scientific evidence of human-driven damage and impending disaster.

We can do better, and a vision and strategy for doing much better is the focus of this series. I’m following the advice of Alan Kay, who observed:

“the best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

Rather than accepting the most likely forecast based on our collective performance to date, let’s articulate the outcome we want — I call it a future history of climate — and collectively work towards that goal.

The challenges involved in solving climate change are monumental. The U.S. federal government’s recent, self-described “authoritative assessment of the science of climate change,” the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), said that, globally, we must go from the roughly 51 billion tons of carbon emissions a year we’re emitting today to effectively zero emissions by 2050.

That means, to avoid climate disaster, we need to get to net-zero emissions by 2050 in all five types of human activities that contribute most of our carbon emissions: how we plug in, how we make things, how we grow things, how we get around, and how we keep warm and cool. In other words, we must make fundamental changes in every aspect of our lives and how society operates.

If we don’t, the consequences will be disastrous. We’ll face worsening conditions in our lifetimes. And, we’ll condemn our our kids and their kids to live with ever more dangerous sea levels, extreme flooding and storms, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, devastated farming, fishing and other food production, flooded cities and infrastructure, mass migration, resource wars, and perhaps worse.

Quite simply, it would be crazy if we didn’t significantly slow global warming and mitigate the worst effects of climate change by 2050. It would be especially so given the immense capabilities and tools that human creativity, science, and technology provide us to address the clear and present dangers we are facing.

To make things even more challenging, however, we have to hit a quickly growing target. According to the World Bank, about 74% of the world’s population lives in “middle-income” countries. A further 9.2% live in poorer countries. All 6.3 billion of those people are working to share in the living standards enjoyed by the 1.2 billion people living in countries with “high income.” And many more will join those aspirants: The UN estimates the world population will grow by 1.9 billion between 2020 and 2050, with all of the growth happening in middle and low-income countries. That means more than 8 billion more people wanting more things.

That’s a lot of people. And, as things stand, it’ll result in carbon emissions dramatically rising, not falling. Growing food to feed all these people increases carbon emissions. Providing clean water and sanitation to them increases carbon emissions. Building homes for them increases carbon emissions. You get the idea. In effect, the world is building the equivalent of another New York City — every month. That means our planet will have added nearly 350 New York Cities between when I’m writing this in 2021 and 2050. That is a lot of momentum taking us in the wrong direction.

We can change that.

The Laws of Zero that I previously introduced enables exponentially improving capabilities that can bend the carbon emissions curve. Solar and wind-generated electricity sources are becoming cheaper to build and operate than existing coal plants. And transportation is rapidly switching to electricity, which will increasingly come from clean sources. On their own, those improvements in energy and transportation won’t get us to the complete solution, but advances in computing, communication, and information give us a platform for innovation in an array of other areas. Those laws at least provide us with hope.

To succeed, we will have to take advantage of the Laws of Zero to pursue a six-pronged strategy, drawn from my book, “A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050,” coauthored with Paul B. Carroll and Tim Andrews.

1. Get all electricity from net-zero sources
2. Electrify everything possible — and develop clean fuels to do everything else
3. Introduce efficiencies that lower energy needs and emissions
4. Make scientific breakthroughs to address current gaps
5. Develop technologies that make it feasible to pull massive amounts of carbon from the air
6. Do all the above… at a cost less than or equal to any carbon-emitting alternatives.

To see how close we can get to net-zero emissions based on current trajectories — and see just how sizable the gaps are that still need to be filled — I’ll go through all six prongs in some detail in subsequent parts of this series.

There’s a cartoon where two professorial characters are standing in front of a chalkboard full of complicated equations. One points to a spot in the middle of the blackboard where the other has written, “then a miracle occurs.” The caption says, ‘I think you should be more explicit here in step two.’ With climate change, I acknowledge a bunch of near-miracles need to occur. I’ll try to be as explicit as possible about where those need to happen so that you have a clearer picture of where you might want to get to work.

Here’s an incentive: As Elon Musk is demonstrating and I’ve previously discussed: any one of these near-miracles would both help save the planet and generate fortunes, the likes of which few have ever seen.

A Brief History of a Perfect Future

This series is adapted from my recent book, “A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050,” coauthored with Paul B. Carroll and Tim Andrews (Future Histories Press 2021).

Here’s an outline of the rest of the series. To be notified about future articles, please follow me here or subscribe at my website.

1. Here’s How We Can (Mostly) Solve Climate Change by 2050 (Part 1)
2. What Might a Prime Minister Greta Thunberg Celebrate by 2050? (Part 2)
3. Renewable Energy is Critical But Not Enough (Part 3)
4. Next, Electrify Everything Possible (Part 4)
5. Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency (Part 5)
6. Other Scientific Breakthroughs We Need — and Why We Can Make Them (Part 6)
7. Carbon Capture From Air (Part 7)
8. Getting There From Here (Part 8 and Conclusion)

I focus on innovation at the intersection of advance technology and societal good. I’m also the author of five books on innovation including, most recently, “A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050.”